The CBI/SCSI Residential Property Price Survey is a quarterly sentiment survey of estate agents, auctioneers and surveyors, as well as those with a more indirect interest in the industry such as economists, market analysts and academics. While the main focus is on participants’ house price expectations, it also canvasses opinion on the factors underlying these and on the level of sales activity. The survey is a snapshot of respondents’ expectations at a particular point in time and so can provide only limited information about possible future property price developments. The survey also provides a measure of uncertainty regarding those expectations, which is a useful complement to the available information on the domestic property market.
Key Highlights
• While majority expect increase there has been a marked shift in responses towards price decreases or stagnation across national and Dublin markets.
• Higher proportions of Dublin-based respondents anticipate a price decrease over the medium-to-long term horizon than elsewhere. • The median degree of expected price inflation nationally is 5 per cent (+1 Year) and 8 per cent (+3 Years). Dublin expectations have moderated from 7 per cent to 2 per cent (+1 Year), while +3 Year expectations have eased from 15 to 6 per cent since the previous survey.
• The availability of bank credit was deemed to be the primary factor behind the anticipated price changes both nationally and in Dublin. ‘Other’ issues, including level of interest rates and the perception of value, was ranked as the second-most cited reason. • Our index of sales activity exhibits a decrease for the fifth consecutive survey from 52 to 49 per cent, indicating a contraction in the level of sales activity (> 50 means expansion in activity, < 50 means contraction).
• The complexity and restrictiveness of rental market legislation was cited as the primary factor influencing the number of BTL properties coming onto the market (34 per nationally and 53 per cent for Dublin-based respondents).
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